Chen (2020)
Risk factors of fatal outcome in hospitalized subjects with coronavirus disease 2019 from a nationwide analysis in China.
Patient characteristics
Age (65-74 years vs. <65 years)
COVID-19 (severe/fatal)
Hazard ratio: 3.430 (1.240-9.500) Adjusted model


Retrospective cohort study

Medical records


1590 hospitalized COVID-19 patients

The median age of fatal cease was 69 years (range: 51-86 years). Thirty of them were male. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was made based on the World Health Organization interim guidance.7 The diagnosis was confirmed by a positive result of real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay or high-throughput sequencing findings from nasal or pharyngeal swab specimens. By the cutoff time of January 31, 2020, a total of 2,007 cases diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were collected, and 417 cases were excluded because of incomplete medical records.


COVID-19 (severe/fatal)


The primary end point of outcome was death.

Patient characteristics


Age category

<65 years

65-74 years

Hazard ratio

3.430 (1.240-9.500)




Multivariate Cox regression analysis - Risk was adjusted for Age, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, dyspnea, procalcitonin, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin and creatinine

This study provided the evidence that advanced age, dyspnea, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, elevated PCT and AST are independent risk factors associated with fatal outcome. The nomogram proposed in this study objectively predicted the prognosis of patients with COVID-19. Earlier identification, more intensive surveillance and appropriate therapy should be considered in these patients with high risk.